Sunday, 11 June 2017

The truce can only be temporary.



Whilst waiting for a bus in Shaftesbury Avenue yesterday afternoon I could not help but overhear the conversation by the others standing there about the general election. All participants obviously from different countries and none with English as their first language. They seemed confused as does much of the activist class on the left to be honest.

Jeremy Corbyn did a lot better, much better than anyone including myself was expecting. Theresa May did appallingly badly. A contest that went from the cult of the personality around Corbyn to one with no personality with May.

Corbyn still lost though, no matter how either he or his supporters want to spin it.

However no matter how one looks at the result the Conservative Party blew it big time and the electorate were not impressed.

The polls got it wrong except for the last one. The Exit Poll predicted a hung parliament and that's what we got.

So what happened and why? That the Prime Minister has decided to continue, at least for now is unsurprising and given the parliamentary arithmetic was the only choice. A rainbow coalition of Corbyn and all the others would not have been enough, especially with Sinn Fein refusing to take up its seven seats.

Enter the DUP, an Irish political party founded by the divisive figure and self appointed Reverend Ian Paisley. In essence a very right-wing and dangerously religious formation thats politics consist of the bible and a soft brexit. Their MP's are like so many religious maniacs anti-gay marriage , anti-abortion and pro-creationist.

I'd almost say god help us but I'm an atheist!

Labour has lost the third election in a row but there has been a return to the seventies, the early years with a hung parliament as Mrs May faces the same problems Edward Heath did and the country has seemingly returned to a two party system with over 80% of the electorate voting for one of the two main parties. The Liberals are seemly buggered for now and that's without another Jeremy...

The big swing to Labour was from young voters whose abstention during the referendum cost them their future in the EU. This time and via social media and particularly in University towns the under 25's surged to support Corbyn based on promises of free education and lots of other free stuff.

The Labour Manifesto made promises that attracted people. The Tory Manifesto just pissed voters off. Dementia Tax? Forget it. No deal over Brexit? No thanks.

But herein lies Labour's problem for the future. Corbyn's Manifesto was written on the basis of a "wish list", one that would not need to be implemented. It was based on the premise that the party would lose and only "the fight", the campaign would matter. It's easy to make promises that won't need to be delivered.

One wonders what would have happened had Corbyn actually walked into No 10.

There will be another election in due course. Theresa May will not survive for long. The knives are already out for her scalp. The deal with the DUP will only last so long and is only a "confidence and supply" arrangement. Government will of necessity be pragmatic.

The Tories will regroup learn from their arrogance and mistakes and return with a new leaders, a new strategy and will not shirk the televised debates. Their manifesto will ditch the controversies and the protection of the pensioner base will return.

A new leader is likely to be more "business friendly" than May turned out. Soft Brexit will be the aim. Jobs first.

Then Labour buoyed by its seeming resurgence will realise that a new manifesto will need to take into account political reality because if it doesn't they will like Clegg before them permanently alienate so many supporters who have been energised by the Corbyn cult. Much of Labour's manifesto is blatantly undeliverable though many of the young will not relate to reasoning why.

To the young (and I remember my youth well) it's a question of "right or wrong". Grey areas are not considered. As the Corbynistas return to the politics of the past I am reminded of something else I noticed during my journey yesterday. Young people do not seem to read newspapers, just us oldies whose habits die hard.

More to the point the use of social media tends to exclude those with whom they disagree. Memes and shared posts to reinforce perceived outlooks are the order of the day. And a local Momentum Organiser dared to accuse me of being brainwashed by the Daily Mail, a paper I do not read.  The Times is my paper of choice. It just informs me. I use other sources, albeit on-line for different views and oddly I seemed to read far more of the left's sites than he did!

The country faces an uncertain few months and years ahead. Just like the seventies. Except the threat is not IRA bombs (for now) or Communism (though that's open to debate) but from Islamist terror and Russian imperialism. Same threats from different quarters.

For now Corbyn is secure and his supporters will take advantage. Those moderates who held their noses and /or campaigned for Labour with so many Labour MP's disowning Corbyn had better watch out. The left are still waiting in the wings to purge.

The truce can only be temporary. Corbyn's promises will motivate for now but when he does not deliver what happens then.

The mainstream left/centre must be prepared for the inevitable. Politics is indeed "out of the box" as old Steptoe likes to tell us but in my view this will hopefully be his ceiling and the future remains an unwritten page.

Organise against Corbyn and Momentum for the future. Unite the moderate factions before it is too late.

Friday, 9 June 2017

First Brexit, Now a Hung Parliament


Photo: By Owltom

When I retired to bed during the referendum I expected to wake up to a small but assured majority to remain in Europe. The actual result both shocked and sowed the foundations of division that has beset the nation ever since.

Now the general election is over and never has a Prime Minister squandered an opportunity more than Theresa May. From leading in the polls and and having a high personal rating because of a divided and ineffective opposition under Jeremy Corbyn who was expected by most including myself to lead the Labour Party to a wipeout May has succeeded in only sealing her own eventual resignation.

At the time of writing there are still three seats to declare but the result is clear. The Tories remain the largest party but can only rule with the help of 10 Ulster loyalist MP's in the DUP. This position only marginally helped by the fact Sinn Fein has captured extra seats and will not sit in the House of Commons as they will not take a loyalty oath to the Queen.

While the Tory knives will be out this morning and reports of a "Stop Boris" campaign have already been heard, Corbyn the most unsuitable candidate ever will be safe for the next five years.

Already the Momentum types have been on social media proclaiming the need for a purge. The Corbynistas are now emboldened and arrogant in their advance. How the moderate mainstream will cope with this reality will be seen over the coming months.

As nationalism retreats in Scotland, it advances in Northern Ireland. The nation remains as divided as ever with Brexit negotiations about to begin the country is in a weak position. It is rare that I would agree with Corbyn but his comment that we should immediately protect the rights of EU citizens lining in the UK would be a sign of good faith.

European leaders will not take the Prime Minister seriously therefore she must go sooner rather than later. Who will replace her is however unclear. Certainly not Amber Rudd a parliamentary newby who barely survived last night.

The choices are limited. There is in all parties a lack of political talent, a product of the modern age of social media?

Brexit has led to a hung parliament and a more uncertain future. In all probability this country will need a second general election later in the year just like 1974.

Well the left have dragged us back to the seventies.....

Thursday, 8 June 2017

Are we there yet?

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It's not often I would consider writing a post in the middle of the night (it's exactly 3:30am as I begin to type) but this election night has been full of surprises. The Prime Minister, despite winning her own seat is doing extremely badly with gains far and few between and then mainly from the SNP whilst actually losing seats to Labour including the gross ben Gummer in Ipswich.

One of the big surprises was Nick Clegg losing his seat in Sheffield Hallam. I think a lot of people like myself forgot he didn't get the boot last time. There's even a recount going on in Hastings where Amber Rudd may lose her seat.

Vince Cable is back in Twickenham with a whacking great majority over the Tories and the Lib Dems have also gained Kingston. The Liberals are already up to 9 seats, two more than the last election.

Corbyn's mates in Sinn Fein  have gained two seats from the moderate SDLP, a worrying sign for Northern Ireland.

The SNP's bubble has burst and the previously arrogant Nicola Sturgeon seems to be eating a wee bit of "humble pie" at the moment. So far they have lost 14 seats!

Labour have even rolled out the somewhat discredited Shami Chakrabarti to replace the "ill" Diane Abbott to comment on the election results.

The late surge for Labour is an unexpected outcome and seems to be despite Corbyn, though younger voters have reacted positively to him.

A hung parliament seems to be the most likely outcome at the moment. Theresa May is the one who will be looking to depart. She has no mandate and what credibility she had has gone out the window. How quickly fortunes have changed in just a few weeks.

Back tomorrow with the election obituary.

Wednesday, 7 June 2017

The day before tomorrow

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Image: By RaviC

The general election is nearly upon us. In a few hours the polling booths open and the people (who bother to vote) will get their say. The outcome is far from the certainty that existed at the beginning of the campaign.

Or is it?

On the face of it the gap between Labour and the Tories has closed but the outcome will also depend not just on the number of votes cast but also their distribution and it is with this  possibility that Labour may become more unstuck than the opinion polls would suggest.

Labour's vote is holding up and possibly increasing (particularly amongst the young) in London but looks increasingly likely to collapse elsewhere. Even this may be dependent on the weather. Labour voters are notoriously put off by rain.

The end result could be a Labour collapse on an unprecedented scale despite Theresa May's more than lacklustre campaign.

Or it might not.

Only tomorrow night will we finally find out the nations verdict.

Despite all the talk of "hung parliaments" and coalitions the most likely outcome remains a Tory victory. Only its size remains in question.

For me the important factor is that Corbyn and his neo-blackshirts are beaten to the extent that Labour can either be retaken by the mainstream (I dislike the term moderates) or the foundations for something new are established for the future.

If the opposition is to survive and turn into a party that is both capable and competent then the Triumvirate of Corbyn/McDonnell and Abbott must be thrown into the dustbin of history where they belong.

Tuesday, 6 June 2017

Another Musical Interlude from Aldious

Time for a break from the world of politics with another little number from Aldious one of my favourite bands from Japan.

These girls rock.

Just enjoy.

Sunday, 4 June 2017

The Man Who Would Destroy Britain


Photo: By DAVID HOLT

With the main political parties suspending campaigning because of the terrorist atrocity in London last night I had considered not proceeding with this post however since some are now suggesting that the election should be postponed I decided to continue. The reason? The Islamist criminals want to interfere with not just our democratic process but our whole way of life. 

My thoughts this morning are with the families and friends of those murdered and maimed yesterday .
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The general election is just four days away. The outcome seems to be that of a Tory win, only the scale of their victory remains in question. The future will be decided not on the re-election of May as Prime Minister but on whether Corbyn (a) continues as Labour leader and (b) the scale of their defeat.

The choice for many is stark. Theresa May has performed badly in this campaign allowing the even more dire and frankly villainous Corbyn to gain ground. What should have been a walkover may not turn out to be.

Nevertheless Corbyn remains the most dangerous politician in Britain. He does not have this countries interests at heart and is friends with most of our enemies. Form the IRA (who are seemingly still active following a raid by the Irish Garda) through Hamas & Hezbollah to the mad, bad clerics in Iran and of course the Russian bear himself Vladimir Putin.

Corbyn's economic model is based on an unaffordable wish list that may exite some voters but will lead the country to bankruptcy and third world status. His plan to ally with the SNP, who like him oppose Trident will see our defences and deterrents as well as our nation itself fall apart.

As rioting takes place in Caracas where the socialists can't even provide toilet paper for the masses we need to consider the consequences of Brexit where obvious difficulties will herald a crisis. The Prime Minister is cantankerous but Corbyn will just roll over to any demands.

Just like his defence policy, Corbyn will raise the white flag.

Then there's the racism. Yes racism.  Under Corbyn the Labour Party has been responsible for the rise of anti-Semitism in the mainstream. The left's courting of the Islamic community makes Jews surplus to requirements in the minds of the the anti-imperialists.

Corbyn and his mates condemn Israel above all nations despite the daily crimes committed by the nations of Allah against basic human rights. Women, Gays, Christians and minorities of all sorts have been abandoned by the left.

There remain some good people inside Labour despite all this, but if Corbyn does not go and take his band of Red Fascists with him the party does not and cannot have a future.

On Thursday consider not this election, but the one after. Corbyn must go. He must be defeated and the left pushed back to the primeval swamps from which they emerged.

Corbyn threatens our way of life as do his friends around the world this ideological quisling is not fit for power.

Saturday, 3 June 2017

Unite Election: Gerard Coyne makes an appeal

Gerard Coyne

It’s not over yet...

I know that I have been quiet since the election result, I have been busy compiling a legal challenge against the conduct of the Unite the Union, General Secretary Election.

Today I have submitted my legal challenge to the Certification Officer.

I believe the election conducted breached the Union’s rules, the requirements of the Trade Union and Labour Relations (Consolidation) Act 1992 (“the 1992 Act”) and was conducted in a manner which breached the principles of article 3 of Protocol 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights.

I am challenging the election on the grounds that the procedures of the union and the actions of a series of employees of the Union have been manipulated by Mr McCluskey (and by employees of the Union who were committed to seeing Mr McCluskey re-elected as General Secretary) and so the electoral process was subverted to the aim of securing a re-election of Mr McCluskey as the incumbent General Secretary.

I vowed during my campaign to bring back democracy to Unite - and I am not finished. It will take some time before we learn if my complaint is upheld but I am confident that based on the evidence that many of you have helped me to gather over the course of the campaign that we will be successful.

I ask for your continued support because if I succeed in this challenge I will be running as a candidate again in the future. If you have evidence of foul play then get in touch.

How you can help me:

I know many hundreds of people have contacted me throughout the campaign because they did not receive a ballot paper - and I am sure there will be many more.

Email me if you:

- Did not receive an invite to your branch meeting which then subsequently nominated Mr McCluskey - but you get other communications from the Union and have done from your branch.

- Was at a nominating branch meeting where Unite officials were in attendance or spoke to members prior to the meeting commencing.

- Did not receive a ballot paper from the Union and you did not email my campaign team to let us know.

- Were contacted via email or text message from Mr McCluskey claiming that your branch nominated him when in fact your branch nominated me.

- Received an illegal Robo-call [an automated voice message] from Mr McCluskey urging you to vote for him.

- Have evidence of Unite officials campaigning between the hours of 9-5 during the week on social media or in person or at official union events.

Contact me if any of the above is true or if you have other information about activity which subverted the democracy of the union.

It will help me if you can provide, copies of correspondence, screenshots or photographs and video evidence of any of the above.

Email me at: info@votegerardcoyne.co.uk

Yours Sincerely,

Gerard Coyne